12:01, Wed 25 Mar
After talking to MP's this morning:

From Prof Neil Ferguson whose views are seen as important because he was the lead author on the Imperial College paper that persuaded the government to drastically escalate its social distancing strategy:

Ferguson said that he and his colleagues were now “reasonably confident” that the NHS would be able to cope with the coronavirus epidemic

He said he would expect the strain on the NHS to peak in about three weeks’ time

Expected up to 10% of the population in London to get coronavirus

As countries around the world relaxed the suppression measures they would impose, they would have to rely on other strategies like testing and contact tracing

Eventually the world might have to rely on a vaccine

He said it was “plausible” that Covid-19 could behave like other coronaviruses and transmission could be somewhat reduced in the summer months but perhaps not by more than 10% to 20%.

Also said the coronavirus reproduction number (the number of people on person with the virus infects on average) has been revised upwards.

He advised he was sceptical an Oxford University study in the news today suggesting up to half the population may already have had coronavirus


Time will tell I suppose
12:04, Wed 25 Mar
Cheers.
12:12, Wed 25 Mar
Indeed!

...and just as he is sceptical about the Oxford findings, they are sceptical about his. It shows how difficult it is for governments when we've had nothing like this for around 100 years, it is developing by the day and even world-class experts in the field have very different views.

I read this morning that Sweden (rightly highly regarded for its high standards in many ways) is carrying on with a policy of largely continuing business as normal and to a large degree relying on herd immunity i.e. the path we were on a couple of weeks back. Their number of cases per million of population is nearly double ours but their death rate is 4 per million against our 6 per million.

[www.worldometers.info]

The death rates in Spain and Italy are horrendous. I hope we do not creep to those levels.
12:22, Wed 25 Mar
FWIW I think the update today is on the optimistic side (and many will disagree etc) though I hope it happens
12:41, Wed 25 Mar
I'd say that only 10% of London getting it is incredibly ambitious?
12:44, Wed 25 Mar
Because they, as you say, generally have high standards doesn’t mean they are ‘right’ in this approach though.
[www.theguardian.com]

There is debate about whether ‘herd immunity’ will happen - are there enough young people as a proportion to ‘get the disease’, will it not re-infect or mutate, and what is the price of this approach - in terms of deaths and effectively crashing health services and the wider economy anyway. In the meantime, south East Asian countries,building on their experience of previous pandemics (like in Taiwan but elsewhere too) have a model which seems to rein in the disease. I know which model I prefer the sound of.
13:20, Wed 25 Mar
To be fair, populations in South East Asia tend to do as they're told and are in any case well drilled in the art of preventing viruses from spreading.

As we've seen, the British are not so 'manageable'.
There's too much opinion and not enough fact.
13:24, Wed 25 Mar
Agree. Some of th things we have and are seeing are astonishing
@Bluewurst1875
13:33, Wed 25 Mar
IanT
To be fair, populations in South East Asia tend to do as they're told and are in any case well drilled in the art of preventing viruses from spreading.

As we've seen, the British are not so 'manageable'.

This. The West in general...An expert makes a view on an approach a government is making but how can they factor in human behaviour.? The last 5-7 days have shown that they could be way off the mark. You only have to look at Italy when a lockdown happened in the north, everybody went south with the kids!
16:16, Wed 25 Mar
Tandy
I'd say that only 10% of London getting it is incredibly ambitious?


I saw that footage of the tube yesterday, I think. Fecking madness!
mad
16:33, Wed 25 Mar
Human behaviour?

They're still telling people they can queue up for shopping and catch the bus or train to work rather than laying on free taxis for all key workers and fetching everybody's shopping for them

I last caught the train the Saturday the matches were called off and was relieved to see Moor Street deserted and my destination Snow Hill very quiet

I won't use public transport again this year, I will walk to Edgbaston if the cricket ever gets going and get a taxi back
16:50, Wed 25 Mar
mad
Here’s a very good article discussing science and human behaviour
[www.lrb.co.uk]
DES
16:50, Wed 25 Mar
mad
You will walk to Edgbaston and sit in a ten thousand crowd watching the hundred!!
That should help!
mad
17:16, Wed 25 Mar
DES
I said cricket
20:35, Wed 25 Mar
I was not going to bother posting on this subject but you really should have a look at this. It is from the UK government and outlines how they have reclassified Covid-19. Scroll down to 'Status of COVID-19'.

[www.gov.uk]