With Wrexham round the corner, watched a podcast where they discussed how “efficient” Wrexham are.
24th in the league with the amount of possession they have in matches, 23rd for amount of touches in the opposition’s box and apparently one of the top scorers in the league and only conceding an average of 0.5 goals.
It’s definitely going to be interesting watching two different methodologies going at it in a few weeks time!
Albeit I don’t believe their low possession is sustainable for an entirety of a season, surely by odds you’re more likely to concede if you don’t have the ball!
It's about what you do with the ball that counts, always said it.
We beat Reading 6-1 with about 22% possession under he who shall not be named.
I'd like to see our lot be a bit more decisive with chance creation.
I reckon if we score first against them, we will batter them
I reckon we will have about 70% possession and they will have about 30%
Wrexham have always been effective with the ball, although it will be a huge test for both sides!
There is clear correlation that teams in all divisions who get promoted have amongst the highest possession stats and those relegated are amongst the lowest. As we know because we were often in the bottom 3 for possession it doesn't absolutely mean you will be relegated and equally Blues could remain top of possession and end up outside the top 2, even the top 6 but it is strong guide.
But over a season if Wrexham continue the way they are they are not statistically very likely to remain in promotion chase. Only Cardiff in, what 10 years, have managed promotion from Championship with less than 50% possession.
We have the better squad by a country mile which should count for a lot. It doesn't always work that way but James McClean is one of their best players.
He was pretty good but I see he’s 35 now. Haven’t seen them play, but long term just don’t see how a team is successful long term with 30% or so possession. I suspect the level last year was much higher.
Possession doesn't win you football matches, it's just a stylistic indicator at best.
The match against Wrexham will be tough. They're likely to be top of the league when we play them (they play this weekend vs Shrewsbury), they've got a very settled side and style and they're effective with it. It's honestly the one I'm most worried about in this next run in. We'll have to be better than we have been previously (in league and cup!) to beat them.
Thankfully we've got 2 weeks to prepare for it, a lot of the squad together in that time, and seemingly one of the most meticulous and hard working managers out there. I'm confident we will look better on that day.
It's also fair to say we've only played teams so far that we would expect to beat bar Fulham. Wrexham will be a bit different, and maybe we naturally play at a higher level in response to that. The next 5 games will be very telling of where we are right now, the first 5 we've probably come out looking rosier on paper than we are in reality.
I'm oddly less worried about this game.
I think the players have heard of them / think they will be around us towards the end of the season so will step up a gear.
We know exactly what there gonna do, same as every other team we've played. Park the bus. I think this will be the turn the corner game.
I hope you're right, but I think it's got huge banana skin potential. They're on a roll, and we're not quite there yet. They will play it like a cup final like every other team does, I only hope we do the same and that gets us across the line. Take any sort of win in it.
If Wrexham keep up those stats they won’t be anywhere near promotion come the end of the season.
It’ll still be a tough game no doubt, their confidence is high at the minute.
We’ve both scored 8 goals, 6 of ours from open play vs 5 for them. They’ve outperformed their xG (4) massively. Long balls seem to be their main outlet, and have averaged 177 passes a game to our 533.
Will be good to see the contrasting styles, and how we deal with it. Even if we do come off worse in this match I think in the long term we’ll end up finishing above them.
I think it's important to point out to our increasingly impatient fan base that if we lose this game it's really not the end of the world.
It's a very very long season, we'll improve and our squad depth will be a critical factor.
Wolves failed 15 times when they got a record points total, so yeah, it's good to remember that some defeats and shit draws are baked in to the HMS Piss the League Total already