Bagel   1
Replying to Ribeye   09:27, Sat 10 Jan
Ribeye
bluer than blues
I do think the crosses across the face of goal have gone down since Laird got injured. Roberts cuts inside and Iwata doesn't get quite as deep as Laird.

I do agree though that at this point it's mostly on Kyogo. I've backed him for a long time but he's had more than enough clear cut chances. He could easily have 10 goals already. TBF to him, according to the BBC and CD's comments, he seems to want to stay and fight, which is a positive.

10 goals? I'd say 4 absolute maximum.

xG is close to 5.
Replying to Bagel   09:30, Sat 10 Jan
5 absolute sitters sounds about right, then a couple of harder chances you'd expect a top striker at this level to take.
Downvote = You're a DvB
number8   2
Replying to Ribeye   10:10, Sat 10 Jan
No, he should have at least 6 or 7 based on the absolute pearlers he's missed.

If Hogan had missed the same chances he'd be being crucified live on Blues TV.
Replying to number8   10:12, Sat 10 Jan
I'd have had the hammer and nails. Useless bastard.

Kyogo has got away with murder on the basis he's tried much harder than Hogan to be fair. If he's committed to fight for his place (and it's not because the wages are big and he's happy to collect them) then fair effs to him, let's hope he gets some today and kicks on.
evanio   0
Replying to number8   10:32, Sat 10 Jan
I know it was a cup game, but he should have had a first half hat trick against Sheff U.
Replying to number8   10:34, Sat 10 Jan
number8
No, he should have at least 6 or 7 based on the absolute pearlers he's missed.
His xG is 4.9. But he only gets a quarter of his big chances on target...
Replying to bluearmyfaction   11:29, Sat 10 Jan
bluearmyfaction
number8
No, he should have at least 6 or 7 based on the absolute pearlers he's missed.
His xG is 4.9. But he only gets a quarter of his big chances on target...

I think that's the issue really, he hasn't been unlucky or the keeper pulled off a worldy, some of his efforts I've just thought how the feck did he manage to put the ball there?

To me he doesn't address the ball correctly, his body shape is all wrong and his standing foot is in the wrong position.

Really not sure what we should do with him. I think value for money wise he's up there with some of our worse signings.
Replying to Ribeye   12:00, Sat 10 Jan
Ribeye
bluer than blues
I do think the crosses across the face of goal have gone down since Laird got injured. Roberts cuts inside and Iwata doesn't get quite as deep as Laird.

I do agree though that at this point it's mostly on Kyogo. I've backed him for a long time but he's had more than enough clear cut chances. He could easily have 10 goals already. TBF to him, according to the BBC and CD's comments, he seems to want to stay and fight, which is a positive.

10 goals? I'd say 4 absolute maximum.

He's had six one on ones with the goal keeper alone this season and fluffed his lines on all off them .

I think people forget how many chances he has had/missed because he has been playing off the bench in recent weeks .It's not like he hasn't been getting chances .He's had two disallowed goals, hit the woodwork twice and missed at least a dozen good chances .I'd say 4 or 5 of them were sitters.

He's had three games where he could have had a hat trick , granted one was in the league cup .

He should be our leading goal scorer and have more goals than Stansfield .

I'm still behind him,hopefully today's his day up the Kyogo 💙👍
Bagel   4
Replying to ForeverFrancis   12:39, Sat 10 Jan
ForeverFrancis
Ribeye
bluer than blues
I do think the crosses across the face of goal have gone down since Laird got injured. Roberts cuts inside and Iwata doesn't get quite as deep as Laird.

I do agree though that at this point it's mostly on Kyogo. I've backed him for a long time but he's had more than enough clear cut chances. He could easily have 10 goals already. TBF to him, according to the BBC and CD's comments, he seems to want to stay and fight, which is a positive.

10 goals? I'd say 4 absolute maximum.

He's had six one on ones with the goal keeper alone this season and fluffed his lines on all off them .

I think people forget how many chances he has had/missed because he has been playing off the bench in recent weeks .It's not like he hasn't been getting chances .He's had two disallowed goals, hit the woodwork twice and missed at least a dozen good chances .I'd say 4 or 5 of them were sitters.

He's had three games where he could have had a hat trick , granted one was in the league cup .

He should be our leading goal scorer and have more goals than Stansfield .

I'm still behind him,hopefully today's his day up the Kyogo 💙👍

One on ones are like 40% scored if I remember rightly, maybe less.

What I'll say is, while he is massively underachieving xG, this rarely happens to players *long term*.

Calvert-Lewin at the start of the year was missing sitter after sitter, and now can't stop scoring. The statistician take is that Kyogo keeps taking good shots, and as such over time should revert to the mean and start scoring. He didn't underperform xG at Celtic.

HOWEVER

when you watch him, he doesn't seem to strike the ball properly. His post-shot xG (essentially, how likely were his actual shots to go in based on placement - top corner would be 0.99 or something) is awful, and his actual ball striking has been shocking, at least when he's onside.

tldr: the statistician in me says he'll start scoring eventually. The Blues fan is definitely not so sure
Bluetone   1
Replying to Bagel   12:52, Sat 10 Jan
I want him to succeed so badly, but even if he had scored 4-5 by now there would still be big arguments that we haven't got value for money from him.

I respect the fact that he wants to put it right where as its easy to save face and go back to Celtic.
Bagel   0
Replying to Bluetone   12:56, Sat 10 Jan
Bluetone
I want him to succeed so badly, but even if he had scored 4-5 by now there would still be big arguments that we haven't got value for money from him.

I respect the fact that he wants to put it right where as its easy to save face and go back to Celtic.

5 goals would be a goal every 180 minutes, or one in two. Dare I say if he were scoring he'd be starting more, too :D
Replying to Bagel   13:07, Sat 10 Jan
Bagel
ForeverFrancis
Ribeye
bluer than blues
I do think the crosses across the face of goal have gone down since Laird got injured. Roberts cuts inside and Iwata doesn't get quite as deep as Laird.

I do agree though that at this point it's mostly on Kyogo. I've backed him for a long time but he's had more than enough clear cut chances. He could easily have 10 goals already. TBF to him, according to the BBC and CD's comments, he seems to want to stay and fight, which is a positive.

10 goals? I'd say 4 absolute maximum.

He's had six one on ones with the goal keeper alone this season and fluffed his lines on all off them .

I think people forget how many chances he has had/missed because he has been playing off the bench in recent weeks .It's not like he hasn't been getting chances .He's had two disallowed goals, hit the woodwork twice and missed at least a dozen good chances .I'd say 4 or 5 of them were sitters.

He's had three games where he could have had a hat trick , granted one was in the league cup .

He should be our leading goal scorer and have more goals than Stansfield .

I'm still behind him,hopefully today's his day up the Kyogo 💙👍

One on ones are like 40% scored if I remember rightly, maybe less.

What I'll say is, while he is massively underachieving xG, this rarely happens to players *long term*.

Calvert-Lewin at the start of the year was missing sitter after sitter, and now can't stop scoring. The statistician take is that Kyogo keeps taking good shots, and as such over time should revert to the mean and start scoring. He didn't underperform xG at Celtic.

HOWEVER

when you watch him, he doesn't seem to strike the ball properly. His post-shot xG (essentially, how likely were his actual shots to go in based on placement - top corner would be 0.99 or something) is awful, and his actual ball striking has been shocking, at least when he's onside.

tldr: the statistician in me says he'll start scoring eventually. The Blues fan is definitely not so sure

Great analysis and nuance
Birmingham City: coming up with new ways to ruin your weekend since 1875
Replying to Fat Buddha OBE   13:13, Sat 10 Jan
Fat Buddha OBE
I do think the crosses across the face of goal have gone down since Laird got injured. Roberts cuts inside and Iwata doesn't get quite as deep as Laird.

I do agree though that at this point it's mostly on Kyogo. I've backed him for a long time but he's had more than enough clear cut chances. He could easily have 10 goals already. TBF to him, according to the BBC and CD's comments, he seems to want to stay and fight, which is a positive.

I can’t argue that he should have bagged a couple but he clearly isn't as bad as people are making out. I simply don’t believe he's missed 10 or 20 big chances, or whatever figure gets plucked out of someone's arse.

Can’t really argue we aren’t playing to his strengths either. One of the things I like about him as opposed to say, Hogan is that he is finding the space to be getting chances, he is getting chances (not BIG chances) with pretty limited minutes on the pitch. So somethings working. He is being found by the midfield maestros.

It’s a fecking conundrum is what it is..

I still love tha bastard.

Oh, I agree he's a paradox because he's creating clear chances that our other strikers don't, but he's also missing those clear chances, when our other strikers wouldn't. I don't know the numbers, but he's had several one-on-ones, clean through. He's definitely had big chances.

I hope he starts today, and I hope he bags a hat-trick.
Replying to Rab C Nesbitt   14:14, Sat 10 Jan
Apparently this rumour is still out there, Adams is on £60,000 a week and doesn't get regular game time, we're not going up this season, get in two younger strikers with potential to improve its a gamble but so is Adams.
Charcy   0
Replying to Super Hans   17:52, Sat 10 Jan
Super Hans
5 absolute sitters sounds about right, then a couple of harder chances you'd expect a top striker at this level to take.

Very few strikers take every single one of their chances though. Not defending him but if he's had seven massive chances then five is about right.