SHA Small Heath Alliance

The run-in

PleasantPlucker 00:46, Tue 3 Feb

PleasantPlucker   0
  00:46, Tue 3 Feb
Hi All,

First post here (I think - I may have dropped by in another life).

I don't want to dampen the current optimism and I'm rooting for play-off success... but a couple of cautious notes for the run-in are as follows:

1. Our run-in is quite tough on the face of it (April);
2. Many of our competitors have still to play Sheff Wed, which appears to be a guaranteed 3 pts the way Wednesday are going.

OK, enough of that: we spent more than anyone in the Championship this January and were 6th highest compared to PL clubs (net spend). We're on the up and on our day we can put aside anyone in this league. Great signings. Great run of form. Bring it on!
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BeauBarry   9
Replying to PleasantPlucker   00:56, Tue 3 Feb
I dont think our run in is anymore difficult than other teams. Eg Wrexham have to play Cov and Boro the last two games.

Most people are level headed. No one is expecting playoffs at this point but I dont think we can write it off completely. As long as we continue to average 2 points a game, starting with Leicester and West Brom, I wont give it up. Anything less than 4 points from those two games and I think it starts to look very difficult.
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Super Hans   13
Replying to PleasantPlucker   01:08, Tue 3 Feb
Just take every game as it comes and keep trying to chip away at the gap.

It's essentially the managers 3rd squad in 2 years now with much different attributes to the others so it's going to take time for it all to bed in. Most important thing for me is to see some real improvement between now and the end of the season so we can go in to next season with a settled squad that really should be in the automatic picture.
Downvote = You're a DvB
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thethinblueline   1
Replying to PleasantPlucker   01:09, Tue 3 Feb
Our next four league games are very winnable.
I’d expect 9 points from Leicester, Baggies and Norwich and probably a draw against Millwall.

After that it’s all to play for, 9 out of our remaining 16 games are at home and arguably only Boro and Wrexham could give us something to think about. Drawing those and winning the the others gives us 23 additional points and on 65. I think I read on here last week that that might be enough to get sixth?

I fully expect the teams outside of the top 6 but above us to fall away as the season progresses with only Derby, Wrexham and Millwall staying the course.

Maybe it’s the optimism in the air after a wonderful transfer window, but I can only see zero points from our trips to Hull and Ipswich. We pick up points at every other game.

Leicester (h) - w
Albion (h) - w
Norwich (a) - w
Millwall (a) - d
Middlesbrough (h) - d
Charlton (a) - w
QPR (h) - w
Sheffield United (h) - w
Derby (a) - d
Blackburn (h) - w
Ipswich (a) - l
Wrexham (h) - w
Hull (h) - l
Preston (h) - w
Bristol City (h) - w
Portsmouth (a) - w

33 points giving us 75 in total. Only the 20/21 season would have seen this not enough for the play offs.

It’s going to be a great end to the season whatever happens!
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BeauBarry   1
Replying to thethinblueline   01:20, Tue 3 Feb
I think 75 points would see us comfortably in the playoffs. Personally i cant see us picking up this amount of points but I'll be happy if im proven wrong.
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TheHeath   1
Replying to PleasantPlucker   01:26, Tue 3 Feb
April Is an opportunity that deny the Mose teams above us points. The run in is our chance to make the playoffs provided we stay in touch for bee the next 2 months.

I think 🤔 it’s our best squad since the first half of 2011/12
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Redditch Blue   2
Replying to thethinblueline   02:28, Tue 3 Feb
We’re in with an outside chance of sixth place. That’s fair to say.

Can’t see us getting near to 75 points though. If you offered me 70 now I’d snap your hand off and hope that was enough.

We’re five unbeaten (albeit from favourable fixtures) in the league already. If your prediction of two defeats in the remainder of the season is correct that’ll mean we’ve ended the season with two defeats in 21 league games. I just can’t see that in a million years to be honest.

I’m not being downbeat. I think we are in a great place potentially heading into next season, with the work we’ve done this month, but I just can’t see us finishing the season as strongly as you’re predicting.

Whatever the outcome this season, I do feel that we have made great strides though in terms of getting to where we want to be. I don’t look at the personnel now and see many clear weak links at all.
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tool   0
Replying to Redditch Blue   06:32, Tue 3 Feb
Redditch Blue
We’re in with an outside chance of sixth place. That’s fair to say.

Can’t see us getting near to 75 points though. If you offered me 70 now I’d snap your hand off and hope that was enough.

We’re five unbeaten (albeit from favourable fixtures) in the league already. If your prediction of two defeats in the remainder of the season is correct that’ll mean we’ve ended the season with two defeats in 21 league games. I just can’t see that in a million years to be honest.

I’m not being downbeat. I think we are in a great place potentially heading into next season, with the work we’ve done this month, but I just can’t see us finishing the season as strongly as you’re predicting.

Whatever the outcome this season, I do feel that we have made great strides though in terms of getting to where we want to be. I don’t look at the personnel now and see many clear weak links at all.

Spot on 👍🏻
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PleasantPlucker   -2
Replying to thethinblueline   07:31, Tue 3 Feb
Good analysis and forecasts.

I don't buy into a gradual rebuilding strategy - we've got to take the opportunities when they come knocking and if promotion is a prospect, we should take it any which way we can. We've the makings of a team to beat anyone and even some in the PL now, so every match should be seen as winnable.

But of course, assuming we don't win everything ...
While you say only 20/21 required more than 75 pts, on the other hand 68 pts and 69 pts were enough in the last two recent years and 70 pts were enough in 19/20, while 73 pts were also enough in that time period.
This year is more competitive than ever and it's a strong possibility that 70 pts could be enough - although that's a risky position of course. Two or three recent years saw teams miss out in 7th place with 70 pts.

A lot are saying they can't see Blues going on a run but at the same time, that's what it takes for promotion.
And we've plenty of opportunities to take advantage of 6-pointers - when we're playing 8 of the top 9 in the current table.
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Beduff Blue   1
Replying to Redditch Blue   07:40, Tue 3 Feb
We are looking at past points totals and guessing what it will take. The bottom line is we don't know. All we know is we need to gain up to 5 points on some of the teams above us and just a couple of points on others. There are 8 clubs we need to better and they will be taking points off each other. We also have to at least match a couple of teams lower than us who still believe they can make it.
Some teams will fall away by themselves and are in a false position at the moment.
Bottom line is there is over 1/3 of the season left and we need to win 2 games more than some and only one game more than the others. The only issue is the other 8 to 10 teams all need to do similar.
Strap up it's going to be fun!!
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75   0
Replying to Beduff Blue   08:23, Tue 3 Feb
I think its going to be a little out of reach for us this season. The new signings seem to have been targeting the areas we all knew we are week in but time will tell whether they significantly improve us as a team.
After the disappointment of many of our over-hyped summer signings I'll reserve judgement until I've seen a bit bit from them.
Hopefully we will see a significant improvement in team performances, especially away from home. If our away form was even marginally better we'd probably be in the top six already and some of the home draws we've had that should have really been wins.
But that is the difference between promotiont contender and mid table in this league.
Clearly the club have recognised the situation though and moved to correct it with speed. They are obviously throwing everything at it to get playoffs this season.
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Bluetea1   -2
Replying to PleasantPlucker   08:44, Tue 3 Feb
PleasantPlucker
we spent more than anyone in the Championship this January and were 6th highest compared to PL clubs (net spend)

🚩🚩🚩

All fees were undisclosed, in and out, so there is no way you can know that.

A lot of rival fans seem happy to take reports that we've spent massively inflated fees at face value.

I bet you think we paid £10m for Kyogo in the summer?
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ForeverFrancis   -2
Replying to thethinblueline   08:47, Tue 3 Feb
thethinblueline
Our next four league games are very winnable.
I’d expect 9 points from Leicester, Baggies and Norwich and probably a draw against Millwall.

After that it’s all to play for, 9 out of our remaining 16 games are at home and arguably only Boro and Wrexham could give us something to think about. Drawing those and winning the the others gives us 23 additional points and on 65. I think I read on here last week that that might be enough to get sixth?

I fully expect the teams outside of the top 6 but above us to fall away as the season progresses with only Derby, Wrexham and Millwall staying the course.

Maybe it’s the optimism in the air after a wonderful transfer window, but I can only see zero points from our trips to Hull and Ipswich. We pick up points at every other game.

Leicester (h) - w
Albion (h) - w
Norwich (a) - w
Millwall (a) - d
Middlesbrough (h) - d
Charlton (a) - w
QPR (h) - w
Sheffield United (h) - w
Derby (a) - d
Blackburn (h) - w
Ipswich (a) - l
Wrexham (h) - w
Hull (h) - l
Preston (h) - w
Bristol City (h) - w
Portsmouth (a) - w

33 points giving us 75 in total. Only the 20/21 season would have seen this not enough for the play offs.

It’s going to be a great end to the season whatever happens!

You've miscounted, your list of predicted results gives us 36 points not 33 points .Meaning we'd end on 78 points in your imagined scenario,and definitely in the play offs .

That's 36 from the remaining 48 on offer 2.25 PPG .As a glass half full ,rose tinted glasses Blues supporter .I can't see us getting that many points in the remaining games , not in this division.

That's run away league winners form over 46 games .However I do hope you're right 👍
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Thrillhouse   1
Replying to thethinblueline   08:50, Tue 3 Feb
Leicester (h) - w
Albion (h) - w
Norwich (a) - d
Millwall (a) - l
Middlesbrough (h) - d
Charlton (a) - w
QPR (h) - w
Sheffield United (h) - d
Derby (a) - l
Blackburn (h) - w
Ipswich (a) - l
Wrexham (h) - d
Hull (a) - l
Preston (h) - w
Bristol City (h) - w
Portsmouth (a) - w

I think that’s more realistic. What’s that, 28 points? So 70 all in.
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PleasantPlucker   -1
Replying to Bluetea1   09:03, Tue 3 Feb
Bluetea1
PleasantPlucker
we spent more than anyone in the Championship this January and were 6th highest compared to PL clubs (net spend)

...there is no way you can know that...
I bet you think we paid £10m for Kyogo in the summer?

And there is no way you can know that. Touché, yes?

As for spending, you're wrong on all fees were undisclosed. I'm only going on what was disclosed, so I haven't taken into account Roberts, Solis, etc.
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