SHA Small Heath Alliance

Based on Xg:

[footystats.org]

Derby 3rd bottom on Xg

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

^^ This - a totally subjective 'stat'. Utterly meaningless.

I do chuckle when you have fans of clubs going "But...but... we were better on xG!". Yeah? So what? Do they give points for being better on xG? Nah, didn't think so.

It does give an indicator of over performing or underperforming teams though. vile were massively over performing there xG stats upto February and were in the title race upto then. Now they’re getting results their performances merit

lowercaser

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

^^ This - a totally subjective 'stat'. Utterly meaningless.

I do chuckle when you have fans of clubs going "But...but... we were better on xG!". Yeah? So what? Do they give points for being better on xG? Nah, didn't think so.

it isn't subjective.

Rasputin

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

Not utter bollocks, but it does show that any stat has a limit to it.

At the end of a season xG is quite useful as part of overall analysis to understand the season and how a team should look to build on the season. In Derby's case it suggests they have overperformed and shouldn't assume what they did this season sets their baseline going forwards.

Rab C Nesbitt

It does give an indicator of over performing or underperforming teams though. vile were massively over performing there xG stats upto February and were in the title race upto then. Now they’re getting results their performances merit

Yep, shouldn’t be taken ‘literally’ because games are ultimately decided by goals scored (and not scored). But it’s a decent indicator of how you should perform, and one of the things it suggests is that our strikers haven’t come up with the goods, which should surprise none of us.

Indeed. Just like stats on possession, or shots on target, or headers won, or whatever. It's a metric that's useful when viewed in context rather than isolation

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

About as useful as a teraflop in a nursing home.

lowercaser

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

^^ This - a totally subjective 'stat'. Utterly meaningless.

I do chuckle when you have fans of clubs going "But...but... we were better on xG!". Yeah? So what? Do they give points for being better on xG? Nah, didn't think so.

It’s the complete opposite of subjective

Rasputin

Just shows what utter b*ll*cks all this xg stuff is!

There has been numerous threads and substacks on how we have inflated our XG via crossing which is the lowest actual return to XG you can do. I believe we lead th league In crosses and are very low down on direct attacks.

I don’t know how it works but if XG’s are created from crosses alone it is silly. Surely it would have to relate to an actual chance? A cross can hit the first man, float out harmlessly or otherwise be easily dealt with by the defence/keeper. They don’t feature in XG do they?

You can't inflate an XG with crosses I don't think? It's only shots that count, a cross has an XG of 0 because it's not a shot.

newblue

Rab C Nesbitt

It does give an indicator of over performing or underperforming teams though. vile were massively over performing there xG stats upto February and were in the title race upto then. Now they’re getting results their performances merit

Yep, shouldn’t be taken ‘literally’ because games are ultimately decided by goals scored (and not scored). But it’s a decent indicator of how you should perform, and one of the things it suggests is that our strikers haven’t come up with the goods, which should surprise none of us.

People poo pahed it last year when I linked we weren’t as dominant as the table suggested upto January/February, especially away. That aligned with what my eyes saw.

Le Mod

You can't inflate an XG with crosses I don't think? It's only shots that count, a cross has an XG of 0 because it's not a shot.

No - It is purely a representation of how likely a shot is to go in from a certain position and game scenario.

You could arguably inflate it by taking a lot of low likelihood shots rather than work better chances. Or deflate it by just not shooting. Not sure anyone would deliberately do either.

There is xA which measures how likely an assist is to be scored, so a lot of crosses would arguably inflate that. Different measure though.