17:08, Tue 14 Jan
In 17.18 and 18.19 seasons, 6th place ended with 75 and 74 points. We currently sit on 32 points from 27 games with 19 left to play. A total of 57 points up for grabs.

Based on previous seasons, we need 42 more points to reach play offs this year. Minimum we'd need is 12 wins, 63% win rate. but we'd need to at least draw the rest. 14 wins (74%) would get us there and can risk losing 5 matches.

Home games are: Cardiff, Forest, Brentford, Sheff Wed, Reading, Hull, Huddersfield, Swansea, Charlton and Derby. Our home win rate is 38%. Our home draw rate is 15%.

Away games are: Middlesborough, Bristol, Barnsley, Millwall, QPR, WBA, Fulham, Stoke and Preston. Our away win rate is 29%. Our away draw rate is 21%.

Our expected form based on what has currently happened will be as below. So we're expected to pick up 24 points leaving us on 56.

Home
Win: 4
Draw: 1
Lose: 5

Away
Win: 3
Draw: 2
Lose: 4

It's very unlikely therefore we'll reach the playoffs. On this basis, how would you treat the rest of the season? Would you keep Pep in, or swap out to start the push for next season?
17:12, Tue 14 Jan
Love your optimism.
17:13, Tue 14 Jan
I'll tell you what, if Blues get in the play-offs this season I'll give you £500 and if we don't you give me a tenner?
17:16, Tue 14 Jan
kro-sc
Minimum we'd need is 12 wins, 63% win rate. but we'd need to at least draw the rest. 14 wins (74%) would get us there and can risk losing 5 matches.

Leave the bus in the shop for another year.
17:18, Tue 14 Jan
Spend 75 Million and go for it
17:20, Tue 14 Jan
TonyEvans
Love your optimism.

More realistic ;)
17:23, Tue 14 Jan
On the "plus" side, we likely need 11 more points to ensure safety.
17:30, Tue 14 Jan
Why so specific with 11? I'm intrigued where this maths is coming from!
17:31, Tue 14 Jan
Will just chip in with my annual observation that 50 points is the perennial relegation-avoidance target.
17:33, Tue 14 Jan
I think I read somewhere that 47 has been the average needed. Either way, history suggests we need more than 11 and it's also my prediction that we will.
17:33, Tue 14 Jan
Last 2 seasons 40 & 41 has been enough.
Tell you what that crack is really moreish.
17:35, Tue 14 Jan
Redditch Blue
Why so specific with 11? I'm intrigued where this maths is coming from!

11 or 12 actually.

I say "likely" as in the last few seasons, 21st place had 43 and 44 points. We currently sit on 32 hence the maths.
17:36, Tue 14 Jan
Super Hans
Last 2 seasons 40 & 41 has been enough.

Sorry yeah, this ^
17:49, Tue 14 Jan
How good are we with Villalba compared to without? We talk about Crowley a lot but Villalba scored more and assists more. I would be interested to see if he makes us win and draw more.
Revere me.
17:50, Tue 14 Jan
I just don't see what last season specifically has got to do with this season. Peterborough were relegated with 54 once.
This is all speculation on all our parts, but to look at the past as a guide you'd surely have to take the average since the Champ became a 46-game season, as opposed to picking out solely the last two seasons?