Breakdown of the possible scenarios in avoiding or getting relegated in the next 2 games (originally written by Alex Dicken at Birmingham Mail)
Survival:
* If Birmingham City win their last two matches, they should secure safety. A victory against Huddersfield this Saturday would relegate them and put Birmingham City in a good position due to their superior goal difference compared to Sheffield Wednesday.
* If Birmingham City win both matches, they'll also stay up if Sheffield Wednesday fail to collect six points from their games against West Brom and Sunderland. Alternatively, two wins would be sufficient if either Plymouth or Blackburn lose one of their remaining fixtures.
Relegation Risks:
* There's a slight chance of relegation this weekend if Huddersfield defeat Birmingham City, and both Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth, and Blackburn emerge victorious. In such a scenario, Birmingham City would face relegation to League One.
* Wins for Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth, and Blackburn would leave Birmingham City in a precarious position if they can't beat Huddersfield. While a draw could relegate Huddersfield, it wouldn't mathematically confirm Birmingham City's relegation.
Points Needed for Safety:
47 points: Birmingham City can secure safety with just one more point, provided Sheffield Wednesday lose both their remaining matches against West Brom and Sunderland, and Huddersfield fail to win either of their games, thanks to Birmingham City's better goal difference.
48 points: If Huddersfield only gather a maximum of four points from their last two matches, including a draw against Birmingham City, then Gary Rowett's team would survive on goal difference if Sheffield Wednesday only manage one point from their remaining fixtures.
49 points: A victory at Huddersfield would be sufficient for Birmingham City, as long as Sheffield Wednesday don't win another match. They'll also stay up with 49 points if either Plymouth or Blackburn lose both their remaining matches.
50 points: Four more points will secure safety if Sheffield Wednesday lose one of their last two matches due to Birmingham City's superior goal difference.
52 points: Birmingham City must win both their remaining games to stay up if Sheffield Wednesday collect four points, and Plymouth and Blackburn secure at least one win each
Someone has gone to great lengths to put that together, only to not even get half of it right.
The 50 and 52 points need to include QPR and Stoke in the equation.
I’m not sure how anyone could fail to see that, having gone to such bother!
Also misses that 48 could be safety if Plymouth lose their two games by an aggregate of -6
No disrespect to the OP as he’s gone to good lengths to put all that in, but how many threads have we had detailing all these potential permutations now?
Beating Huddersfield and Albion beating or drawing with Sheff W is all i want to think about the moment
Then it's back in our hands
Bordesley not Small HeathBeating Huddersfield and Albion beating or drawing with Sheff W is all i want to think about the moment
Then it's back in our hands
This.
Win Saturday and one way or another it will be in our hands I reckon.
Or if Blackburn or Plymouth lose. 😂
I'd simplify it to:
If we win both matches, it's very likely we'll stay up. All we'd need is Blackburn, Plymouth or Sheffield Wednesday to lose a single game. In fact, we'd just need Sheffield Wednesday to fail to win one of theirs.
Draw one and win one and we need Sheffield Wednesday to lose a match (or Blackburn or Plymouth to lose both of theirs).
Anything less than that and we're just praying for a miracle.
I'm currently asking Chat GPT to work all this out. It's effing useless.
Not worried about skynet yet.
Understood. Let's factor in all hypothetical scenarios for the upcoming matches, considering the parameters where a win earns 3 points, a draw earns 1 point, and a loss earns 0 points. We'll also consider that Birmingham City will play against Huddersfield in the next game week. Here's the breakdown:
Current Standings (Points Total as of now):
Birmingham City: 46 points
Huddersfield: 44 points
Sheffield Wednesday: 47 points
Plymouth: 48 points
Blackburn: 49 points
QPR: 50 points
Stoke: 50 points
Hypothetical Scenarios for the Next Two Games:
Birmingham City:
Scenario 1: Wins against Huddersfield, loses the other match
Scenario 2: Loses against Huddersfield, wins the other match
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Huddersfield:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Sheffield Wednesday:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Plymouth:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Blackburn:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
QPR:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Stoke:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches
Scenario 2: Loses both matches
Scenario 3: Draws both matches
Calculating Potential Standings:
Let's calculate the points for each team based on the scenarios outlined above.
Birmingham City:
Scenario 1: Wins against Huddersfield (3 points) + Losses the other match (0 points) = 3 points
Scenario 2: Losses against Huddersfield (0 points) + Wins the other match (3 points) = 3 points
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
Huddersfield:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
We'll continue this process for the remaining teams.
Let's proceed with calculating the potential standings for the remaining teams based on the outlined scenarios:
Sheffield Wednesday:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
Plymouth:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
Blackburn:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
QPR:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
Stoke:
Scenario 1: Wins both matches (6 points)
Scenario 2: Loses both matches (0 points)
Scenario 3: Draws both matches (1 point each) = 2 points
Now, let's analyze how these points would affect the standings. We'll calculate the points for each team under every scenario and then order the teams accordingly.
Potential Standings:
Birmingham City:
Scenario 1: 49 points
Scenario 2: 49 points
Scenario 3: 48 points (Draws both matches)
Huddersfield:
Scenario 1: 46 points
Scenario 2: 44 points
Scenario 3: 46 points
Sheffield Wednesday:
Scenario 1: 53 points
Scenario 2: 47 points
Scenario 3: 49 points
Plymouth:
Scenario 1: 50 points
Scenario 2: 48 points
Scenario 3: 50 points
Blackburn:
Scenario 1: 55 points
Scenario 2: 49 points
Scenario 3: 51 points
QPR:
Scenario 1: 56 points
Scenario 2: 50 points
Scenario 3: 52 points
Stoke:
Scenario 1: 56 points
Scenario 2: 50 points
Scenario 3: 52 point
PetebaldwinI'd simplify it to:
If we win both matches, it's very likely we'll stay up. All we'd need is Blackburn, Plymouth or Sheffield Wednesday to lose a single game. In fact, we'd just need Sheffield Wednesday to fail to win one of theirs.
Draw one and win one and we need Sheffield Wednesday to lose a match (or Blackburn or Plymouth to lose both of theirs).
I think Blackburn could lose one and draw one in that scenario and we'd be safe. We'd have the same number of points (50) but we've both got a goal difference of minus 16. Blackburn losing and drawing would mean that their goal difference deteriorated (even if only by one) and a win and a draw for us would mean that our goal difference improved, again omaybe nly by one, but it would be enough.
I really need to stop thinking about this.
PetebaldwinI'd simplify it to:
If we win both matches, it's very likely we'll stay up. All we'd need is Blackburn, Plymouth or Sheffield Wednesday to lose a single game. In fact, we'd just need Sheffield Wednesday to fail to win one of theirs.
Draw one and win one and we need Sheffield Wednesday to lose a match (or Blackburn or Plymouth to lose both of theirs).
Anything less than that and we're just praying for a miracle.
Thats not quite right. If we draw one and win one we can still afford for Blackburn and Plymouth to draw one of their remaining games, as long as they lose the other one.
We'd finish above Blackburn on goal difference, probably by 1 goal. Their keeper would be devestated.
I'd relax. We are an abject disgrace away from home so unless the other teams lose we're effed. Simple as that.
Get your route planner out for League 1.
Nikola Zigic- FEAI'd relax. We are an abject disgrace away from home so unless the other teams lose we're effed. Simple as that.
Get your route planner out for League 1.
I'll relax a few days after we're safe or relegated, I suppose. Until then, I shall be a trembling old tart.