RonzPossession isn't everything but looking at one game or a small number of games in isolation doesn't tell the full story either.
I doubt many teams are successful over a sustained period with just 30% possession, we know this first hand.
The club have done their homework on this and it's exactly why they want a high possession style of play.
I'm not referring to the season as a whole, I'm referring to this game in isolation, in a few weeks.
Wrexham may well come up short against teams that do not like having the ball and force them to have it, for this game, the pattern will suit them, it doesn't mean they will win, it doesn't tell us anything about the season as a whole, but it is a tough match.
CharcyI think it's one of the toughest fixtures of the season. I think they'll be top six and we are playing them when their squad is pretty fresh.
I agree, I think they'll be in and around the top 6 as well. It's these early games that are going to be tricky, I still fully believe once we get going we'll be absolutely sound. Won't be destroying teams 3-4 nil every week but we'll be winning almost every game.
My Blue HeavenI reckon if we score first against them, we will batter them
I thought that before the Wigan game but I think we are still quite a way from battering anyone. The Wrexham, Huddersfield and Charlton games might prove to have come too early.
Agreed, I think towards the back end of October we will really start to hit our stride.
I full expect us to drop a few points up until then.
mjd2505Possession doesn't win you football matches, it's just a stylistic indicator at best.
Not true even in League 1
Last season top 3 highest possession stats - Portsmouth, Bolton, Peterborough occupied the 3 of top 4 position. Derby were on 51% and in the middle.
2022/23 - Ipswich (promoted auto), Bolton (Play-Offs), Plymouth (promoted auto)
2021/22 - Ipswich (nowhere), MK Dons (3rd, Play-offs), Bolton (nowhere), Sunderland (promoted play-offs) - Wigan were 6th highest and finished as champions
2020/21 - MK Dons (nowhere), Sunderland (Play-offs), Oxford (Play-Offs) - Peterborough were promoted automatically and sat 5th highest
So yes you can have good possession and end up middle table albeit Blues possession stats as it stands are off the charts compared to any team, any year. But general trend says being a possession based team in the league one will be a reliable indicator of finishing top 6. Also even in 2021 Ipswich were already the best at keeping the ball, they lacked elsewhere I assume to progress which we have cheat coded at both ends.
Course it's true. Possession on it's own genuinely means nothing - chances created, shots taken, xG, these are all better indicators of where a team should be finishing because they relate more directly to scoring goals which does win you football matches. Possession is correlated to more successful teams but they have other metrics which support why they were successful, not how many passes they made or how long they held onto the ball for.
Possession is indicative of the style the club is playing - you can very easily create more chances, have more shots and higher xG without having high possession. If anything, I'd argue if you go above like 70% possession you're probably being wasteful with it unless you properly smack a team, in which case you're also going to have other metrics which support why you did well.
I'm a backer of the style of play by the way. I'm not trying to shit on a possession heavy style of play, I'm glad we've transitioned into it. But I'm more glad that Davies is so strong on not having possession for the sake of it. You've got to do something with the ball.
Crawley are likely to finish near the bottom if not be relegated and they have loads of possession. People over value it - that's my point.
Possession is much less important than having good players who have a workable team plan.
Mostly teams who have better players have more of the ball. But it's also possible for mediocre teams to prioritise risk free possession. It's very difficult for poor sides in a division to win promotion. Over a season the teams that create the most good chances generally do better. Occasionally yo get a limited very well drilled team that wins something. Leicester in 2016 are the poster boys for this. Without having the best players they had a fanally effective team. It's rare though. Also Mourinho's Inter won the CL with a non-possession based game. They had some great players to carry out this plan.
At the moment i don't think our team is quite comfortable with the plan. We need time to settle in and tighten things up.
If Wrexham have the forwards to exploit playing on the break they can do very well. I'm not sure they do, over a season, but we will see. Sometimes momentum can carry a team on.
I don't agree, sorry. As I said whilst yes it is possible to have one of the highest % of possession and end up mid table and it is occasionally possible to register a middle ranking possession stat and get automatic promotion/champion it is rare.
Leicester are the only prem team to do it since we recorded % accurately. Cardiff promoted in 17/8 with 47% and Burnley in 15/16 with 48% are only recent examples both of whom didn't wander into that style of play it was deliberate.
Having the ball far more than opposition leads to all the other good stats you talk about. It tires the opposition mentally and physically.
mjd2505If anything, I'd argue if you go above like 70% possession you're probably being wasteful with it.
That's a fair point. You generally surrender possession if you have a shot and you obviously do if you score so there a point at which possession has an optimum I suppose.
We all watch England in the Euros play a high possession game to little end product in most games (Albeit they did get to the final!) but I England's problem was the snails pace at which to ball was moved, I don't see that in Blues.
My Blue HeavenScoring first is key. In 4 league we’ve scored first twice and win both. And got 4 points from games where the opposition scored first, which is great but unsustainable I think. So is us only getting the first goal in half the games though. I expect us over a season to get the first goal in 66-75% of games. When we do we should win most of those gamesI reckon if we score first against them, we will batter them
IanTI don’t think the fan base is increasingly impatient mate. People are more patient because they can see a plan and style of playI think it's important to point out to our increasingly impatient fan base that if we lose this game it's really not the end of the world.
It's a very very long season, we'll improve and our squad depth will be a critical factor.
Having better players is massively important.
That's why Burnley went up while Swansea with more possession did not.
Teams with good players do well (if they are coached competently). A team with fewer good players (relative to the division) either has to play a much more limited game or be coached better than everyone else, or both to do well.
I think you are getting things the wrong way round. It's more difficult for teams with relatively poor players to keep the ball. It's also easier to do a Rowett - that is maintain two line of 4 and not take risks. If you are the weaker side it's your most likely route to not losing (or winning). That's why they tend to have low possession statistics. Also tired sides give the ball away.
So possession is a measure of how good a side is (in general) not a way of becoming good. Blues tended to have low possession stats because we were rubbish. Where we had more possession it was usually because a side sat back against us and let us get out of position attacking ineffectually.
If you look at Swansea over the last few seasons they've prized possession more than any other Championship side, but it's mostly passing round the back and middle. They aren't good enough to stretch teams to breaking point, but end up largely playing in front of unruffled defences. Its only worth having the ball if you can use it effectively.
Prized possession is a great phrase. You can get obsessed with padding out stats and it’s dangerous. Russell Martin one who overplays at the back I feel at the expense of braver attacking football. I’ve already said I hope we don’t go down that route. There’s a balance to be had between playing good attacking football and bossing possession. That’s what maximises your chances of fans returning imo
Yeah, you don't necessarily go up because you have possession, possession is typically a bi-product of having the best players, and having the best players makes you more likely to go up.
I'm hopeful we will have the best players and a style that suits them and is effective/dominant, just gonna take a bit of time, I mean 10 points from 4 is a good start.
GBBlueI don't agree, sorry. As I said whilst yes it is possible to have one of the highest % of possession and end up mid table and it is occasionally possible to register a middle ranking possession stat and get automatic promotion/champion it is rare.
Leicester are the only prem team to do it since we recorded % accurately. Cardiff promoted in 17/8 with 47% and Burnley in 15/16 with 48% are only recent examples both of whom didn't wander into that style of play it was deliberate.
Having the ball far more than opposition leads to all the other good stats you talk about. It tires the opposition mentally and physically.
Teams with better players naturally have more possession, but possession alone isn't something to aim for or praise. For example, against Walsall, having 81% possession was too much. The real chances only came in the last 15 minutes when the ball was moved quicker. Simply passing the ball around the back slowly doesn’t tire teams out unless they're pressing high. Moving it faster forces the team defending to work harder as they've got to track runners and close the ball down more as you progress up the pitch.
Crawley have the 2nd highest possession in the league, yet are predicted to go down. Teams like Wrexham, Lincoln, and Charlton have much lower possession but are predicted to be playoff contenders.
I'm an advocate of our style of play, but not because we have loads of the ball, that's just a by-product of it.