17:53, Thu 16 Sep
Le Mod
Yeah, that's outside of the points the fella is making, but granted.


On that subject, I thought it was 75% of the net profit made, capped at £30M per year? Even if we went up I doubt we'd make much of a net profit given we'd need a load of new players, but it does add a complexity.

To be clear. Promotion would be brilliant. But it wouldn't solve our problems. Going up generates increased revenue and increased costs. We are already in a huge unsustainable financial hole and one or even two or three seasons in the prem wouldn't solve that, especially not with the people running our club (based on their record to date).

Current play bonuses is just one example is used to try to illustrate my point.

El Mayor's Vong Pech point wasn't directly made by me (I have alluded to how our owners will bollix things though and that backs upmy point).

Going up would be better than staying down.

It would be brilliant.

It's not a silver bullet.

That's basically my point.

Put it an entirely different way.

We sold Jude for £25M.

We need to sell another 5 Jude's to get close to being out of debt and owning our ground again.
Le Mod
I'm not really sure what your point is, even if the bonuses were 50 Million (They wouldn't) we'd still be in a much much stronger position than we currently are.

We'd be going from being completely broke to having lots of disposable income with which we can either bank or obtain assets of value.

We're £100m.in debt.

We have no ground.

We currently lose £30m every year unless we sell something or someone.

So by the end of this season we'll be c. £130m in debt.

We go up, we get £100m in extra income per season.

If we keep our current squad, buy nobody and assume wages go up by just 25% (bonuses and wage rises) our costs rise to c. £60m a year. We'd make c. £50m profit and finish bottom.

So we'd be back in EFL with debt down to c. £80m and due to para payments we'd breakeven (or better) for 3 years.

Obviously this is a worst case scenario. It may be we can invest smartly, stay up and/or sign players with sell-on value. But doing that is hard. See WBA, Sheff utd, Norwich, Huddersfield etc.

So does going up help? Of course it does.

Does it clear up the owners' and Dong's financial stupidity. Probably not, but it will help.
So there’s no negative to going up, agreed.
05:19, Fri 17 Sep
Le Mod
So there’s no negative to going up, agreed.

Even though you're clearly being deliberately obtuse now, I'll bite.

Here's a scenario. We go up. Players get bonuses % wage increases (around 40%) and in some cases new or extended contracts with further pay increases. We then sign 6 first team squad players to help try to survive. All of them come in on a "basic" premiership wage which is still more than anyone else (except possibly Deeney) at the club is on. 2 are free transfers and so command big signing on fees and have high wages as we were in competition with other clubs to sign them. 2 are loans from other prem clubs. They have loan fees on the region of 5m each. We pay half their wages. 2 are permanent signings. One costs 8m. The other "marquee" signing, let's call him Aaron Moy, costs 20m. Fans are excited. 8m man is on 50k PW. Aaron is on 80k PW. Everyone has a 40% wage reduction relegation clause. All the new signings are on 4 year contracts.

With all that business we are barely going to break even but we will turn a small profit.

In January we are 18th. We loan one player on the same deal as above for 6 months. We sign two more players on 3½ year contracts. Both on 50k PW. Combined fees of £15m.

We fail to break even and get relegated.

Relegation clauses kick in, the 3 loans expire. Aaron Moy wants to stay and help the club bounce back. The 2 January signings flopped and no-one wants them. We sell the other two fee signings at a loss but the wages are gone.

We've now had a season in the premiership. Spent all the revenue and more on fees and wages. We are now losing more money than before we came up. The parachute payments are immediately mortgaged at a loss to a bank, let's call them "Macquarie" and let's say they're based in "Australia". We use a portion of the payment to buy an average championship player for 5m on 20k PW. The rest goes into the club.

We kick off the 22-23 season in a worse financial position than we are now. We have a number of aging championship players on higher wages and longer contracts than now. We have a couple of average prem players on very big wages with 3 seasons to run. We still have a debt of £100m which is becoming harder to service as loan facilities for the holding company are maxed out. We still don't own the ground.

We lose are first match at home to Blackburn.

We are now in a worse financial position than before promotion.

As I have said throughout this thread. Promotion would be brilliant. It would represent an opportunity to help right the wrongs of the past. It is also highly probable that it would end in tears in a scenario like above.

So no it's not the case that there are no negatives to promotion. There are and they are significant.
05:27, Fri 17 Sep
We can all create a make belief universe with our own hypothetical imaginary transfers, bank loans, contracts and football results, it doesn’t really strengthen the point.

Yes, if the club makes a series of bad decisions then things could be worse than before. That’s the case with promotion or without promotion, every year.
05:27, Fri 17 Sep
There's an extended version of this scenario which involves the BIHL reversing two large development companies into its portfolio allowing BCFC to be released from the listing. Unable to sustain itself we go into administration whilst the ground is sold for property development.
05:36, Fri 17 Sep
And in the sequel, a Russian Missile hits the ground during a stalemate with Hartlepool and we’re all blown to bits, only identifiable by our season tickets
08:06, Fri 17 Sep
Le Mod
We can all create a make belief universe with our own hypothetical imaginary transfers, bank loans, contracts and football results, it doesn’t really strengthen the point.

Yes, if the club makes a series of bad decisions then things could be worse than before. That’s the case with promotion or without promotion, every year.

Point doesn't need strengthening. It is perfectly valid on its own and there are lots and lots of real life examples to demonstrate it.
10:05, Fri 17 Sep
In my simplistic view any professional team from a major urban conurbation with a large potential fan base should aim to play at the highest possible level.I don't consider Fulham and Bournemouth to be bigger clubs than us yet their recent seasons in the top flight don't seem to have done them any harm as their recent results against us show.
This club has had more than it's share of dark times in the past including 5000 crowds in the 3rd tier under the Kumars and Wheldon so I say if the chance of promotion is on let's go for it and and what will be will be.
10:41, Fri 17 Sep
Le Mod
And in the sequel, a Russian Missile hits the ground during a stalemate with Hartlepool and we’re all blown to bits, only identifiable by our season tickets

they must make the season tickets out of the same stuff they made the 9/11 hijacker's passport
AnE - conspiracy theorist, ardent viler-hater, nutjob cyclist, Cubie-bater, go-to iconoclast